Trump's path to the Republican nomination got a lot clearer yesterday. The Republican Primary in South Carolina was held on February 20th (the Democratic Primary is next weekend). Trump came in first with 32.5% of the vote, Rubio came in second with 22.5%, Cruz came in third with 22.3%, and Bush, Kasich and Carson finished with under 8% each.
Kasich and Carson are finished. I expect Kasich's support to flow to Rubio and Carson's to Trump. Bush will hold on until Super Tuesday. The elite and establishment will consolidate now around Rubio and the money will flow his way. We've seen the start of Cruz attacking Rubio as a creature of the establishment and I would expect that to increase at this point. He's going to get hammered on that point and will become radioactive with the base which is distinctly anti-establishment and anti-elite.
Cruz is going to hang on for a while, but he'll be toast before long. He uses a lot of dirty tricks and he's doesn't come across as particularly moral. He's a career opportunist and this is his high water mark. I'm not entirely sure where Cruz's support goes when he drops out. I think a best guess would be a split between Trump and Rubio, but I'm not sold on that. Trump has suprised me in that he has a fair number of Evangelical Christians voting for him. It's possible that they rally to Trump's banner.
Of course I'm in pundit mode and even though I've been mostly correct so far (you'll have to take my word for it since I was still on blogger hiatus as of last week), I'm painfully aware of how hard it's been to make predictions about this race. Six months ago I wouldn't have guessed Trump vs Rubio for the nomination. I would have guess Bush with Trump playing the spoiler. This race is a dream come true for people who enjoy political analysis.
UPDATE: Well, one of the problems with not following the news closely is that Bush dropped out already. So I'm off on the timing on that one. I really thought he was going to wait for Super Tuesday.
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